Fire Simulation and Prediction by Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Mahsa Hassankashi. CodeProject. 2017-06-05.
There are some events in any area which have specific behavior in spreading, such as fire, infection virus or computer virus. There are common patterns in all of mentioned examples for instance, they are complex in prediction next part, and need huge mathematic calculation in order to anticipate next point of spreading. I have focused on fire spreading in this article.
Fire occurs so many damages in every aspect of life, human injuries and economic matters which we cannot neglect its hurts. It becomes worse when it spreads widely. Therefore, predicting fire spread is important. Obviously having comprehensive knowledge about avoiding fire in new position can prevent from its consequences. In fact, when flames reach to potential fuels, combustion will happen and fire will move in new position.
There are some different factors which are playing important role in fire spread such as fuel type and load, wind velocity, humidity and slop, we can draw a pattern from fire behavior and approximate next point in order to stifle fire in new point. There are limited tools in some areas such as ship and we do not have complete and professional firefighting team.
Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo for fire simulation is a fast and proper solution because it is memoryless while mathematic formula with less information about next point is time consuming. In this approach there is a function to generate random number between zero and one and it is the probability of flame spread, if the probability of ship room which has been calculated from influence of fire is greater than this number, so fire will go advanced, otherwise fire will die out.

[Fire Simulation and Prediction by Markov Chain Monte Carlo]


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